Towers and Transmitters

Is the writing on the wall?

Will towers and transmitters, those that transmit traditional AM and FM radio, eventually fade away like a spring-loaded Victrola?

I think so.

Despite the fact that simply turning on a traditional radio and selecting a station is ridiculously simple, easy, and works very well the mobile streaming train has left the station and accelerating to bullet train speeds.

While out and about this past weekend I brought a pair of ear buds with me and "dialed" up a few different platforms on my 2G/EDGE Blackberry Curve and flawlessly listened to a number of different radio stations. It could not have been easier. I can't remember the last time I listened to a radio on a "Walkman" type device outside of a business application.

Transmitters? Transmitters? We don't need no stinkin' transmitters!

When will this take place? I don't know. But the next five years will make even the traditional radio person wonder how much time is left for the tried and true. That I do know.

Think about this, a recent report identified the largest group of Twitter users are people OVER 35! Wait, over 35? Yup.

The mobile device is the most tranformative piece of electronic gadgetry of our time. Not sure any of us thought that would be the case when we first started carrying around those early Motorola brick [in size and weight] cell phones in the early 90's.

Remember, IBM in the early days of the PC thought nobody would want one and passed on being a part of that revolution.

Early FM All Over Again

In the early days of FM many license holders saw so little value in those licenses they turned them in or sold them for next to nothing. It took a long time but eventually FM surpassed AM in terms of overall listenership and revenue. Conventional wisdom suggested that AM, as the dominant radio band, was so strong nothing would take it out. We know how that story ended. [yes, of course there are still strong AM stations with big audiences]

Fast forward to the recent news of stations suspending their streaming efforts for reasons of royalty rate protest, and, today we read of saving part-timers from layoffs. I too think the royalty issue is a big one and I am happy to see fellow radio folks stay employed, but, in the end these actions are not much different than those early FM license holders turning in their licenses.

I think everyone realizes streaming audio is not going to go away. How to make money with these streams is still elusive for most and will most likely remain elusive for some time to come. Innovation comes at a price and most times requires a long time horizon.

Check out this story in the New York Times about Twitter--lots of buzz, massive consumer acceptance, but no revenue.

How this chicken and egg scenario plays out is still unknown, but as an old radio commercial once said, "you gotta be in it to win in it."

When Thinking About Tomorrow...Forget About Today

Today is so yesterday...really. Tomorrow, in fact, might already be yesterday.

If you had your doubts that wireless and mobile devices (among other things) are the future check out the work being done at the Georgia Institute of Technology:

[from electronista] The Georgia Electronic Design Center (GEDC) at the Georgia Institute of Technology has announced a CMOS chip that is capable of transmitting 60GHz RF signals. The technology is claimed to be capable of wireless data-transfer speeds in the multi-gigabit range. Potential applications include high-speed short-range communication between desktop computers, data centers, wireless home audio or video systems, or moving gigabytes of photos and video to and from mobile devices. The single-chip component integrates a low-power radio with an embedded antenna, while drawing only 100 milliwatts of power. GEDC researchers have experimented with a variety of configurations, reaching speeds up to 15 Gbps at one meter, 10 Gbps at two meters, and 5 Gbps at five meters. Tests also successfully streamed uncompressed 720p or 1080i video.

Low power requirements, lightning fast speeds, and if HD video can be streamed there's no audio content it won't be able to handle with ease.

Any plan for tomorrow must factor in and try to anticipate the (completely) unexpected.

I believe conventional wisdom in the radio industry today still believes in-car internet is still a long way off. Don't believe it! We (radio) were slow to recognize and participate in the tech revolution--even though it was already moving at warp speed.

High speed...wireless...cloud computing coming sooner than we all think.

Brian Williams Shows His Generation Gap

Recently Brian Williams, the NBC Nightly News anchorman, jokes about technology at a speaking engagement (Adage had the video). It's really more like a body check [for you hockey fans] about technology. The subjects? Ebooks and streaming (err, radio).

It was humorous...especially when he talks about mastering the technology which he referred to as equipment. He was talking about an iPod Touch. Seemed a little overstated to me.

Whether it is a physical book or a portable radio what Mr. Williams is missing here is that great content needs to be platform agnostic and should work anywhere and anytime on any device. That goal has yet to be reached, but we are getting closer, much closer.

I wonder how many people will choose to stream local radio when it's hard to tell the difference between a stripped down radio station and one that is created in the bedroom of a 19 year old?

FlyCast and Blackberry

My T Mobile Blackberry Curve just got a fresh software update and I can now stream with the aid of FlyCast. I take you on a guided tour with the video podcast.

The New FM

Many have talked about HD Radio being in the same spot FM radio was in the late 60's--still early, with the potential for exponential growth coming. Sadly, this is very far from an accurate comparison. In truth, for reasons you've read and heard a thousand times, HD is miles behind in a race that it is not likely to win. From weak programming to signal and interference issues to very few radios sold this venture is a "tough putt."

However, a real growth story is beginning to develop--[streaming] on-line. I can't say I'm surprised to hear that in PPM markets New York, LA, and Chicago a growing cume story is emerging. Inside Radio had that story this morning:

Streaming makes a bigger showing in PPM ratings. Stations meeting minimum reporting standards for online listening more than tripled last month, as 11 stations in the first 13 PPM markets had enough listening to “make the book.” The webcast of New York AC “Lite FM” WLTW had a 0.6 cume rating while sister CHR “Z-100” WHTZ reached a 0.7. Both stations did better in suburban embedded markets, even topping a 1.0. In Los Angeles AC KOST and modern rock KROQ both had a 0.5 cume rating. Chicago’s WLS hit a 0.6 — with a big spike in online listening during Rush Limbaugh’s show. Arbitron SVP Bill Rose says while online listening remains primarily an at-work medium, it is proving to be more of a 25-54 phenomena than first thought. Last month, more than one in ten working Men 25-54 (11.4%) listened to a station online. For working Women 25-54 it was 10.9%. That compares to 7.5% for Persons 6+. Rose says “Streaming has been around a little while and it’s gotten a little older.”

It's a very optimistic story, one that is closer to the early FM comparison.

Now, streaming is more about "easy" and less about buffering, dropped connections, and bad audio. Mobile and dashboard access are upon us and will become easier and easier in the months and years ahead.

Five reminders I think are vital for successful streaming initiatives:

• Open access--streams need to be available outside of proprietary players.
• A clean stream in which the music, talent, spots, and promos create a seamless listening experience. No dead air during a spot break or that hideous "we'll be right back" music!
  
• Decent audio quality (btw, Orban has a great sounding plug-in to help in this area).
• Begin thinking about specialty streams--continuous morning show replays, interview and news maker channels, single artist channels, local event channels, etc.
• Creative marketing initiatives designed to help listeners easily access your streams.

Live From Atlanta-The RAB!

The RAB conference is underway in Atlanta and I believe it just might be the most important radio industry gathering of the year.

Right now there is nothing more important than growing revenue. Yes, we have significant programming challenges ahead, but until the revenue picture improves little or nothing will improve on the programming side.

Let's hope the attendees in Atlanta come up with some creative ways to jump start the sales effort. We're counting on them!

This year the RAB, I believe for the first time, is making the audio of all of the sessions available via live stream. You can listen in here.